2014: Week 12 at the Source (Week 14 in the market)

– Rain: For the whole week we had a total of 7.6 mm (0.30 inches) of accumulated rainfall, another relatively dry week! We are now beginning to be concerned about a prolonged drought!

– Temperature: The average minimum temperature during the week reached 20.4°C (68.7°F) but this average hides the fact that we had three nights with minimum temperatures below 20°C (68°F) and even one that only reached 18.8°C! So far this was the second coolest night of the year. The average temperature reached 25.8°C (78.4°F) and the average soil temperature was 26.7°C (80.1°F). Solar radiation was lower than during week 11 as we saw more cloud cover, while the average relative humidity increased slightly to 79.8 %.

– Observations: March – In like a lion, out like a lamb is what we are expecting – a gradual increase in the average minimum temperatures over the coming weeks. On the other hand, we have no recollection of having such a prolonged dry spell during this time of the year. The inventory of natural fruit that we have identified is significantly less than prior years – but we cannot say we are out of the woods yet as the low temperatures of the previous weeks coupled with the almost drought-like conditions may bring on stress to plants near forcing-age and trigger natural flowering – a situation we will not be able to ascertain until 4 to 6 weeks from now. What is becoming evident is that volumes will drop post Easter given the fact that there is little natural fruit to fill in the gap created by the farm practices of minimizing the volume of plants exposed to the cold and wet stress of late December/early January. If Oscar were a betting man he would probably predict that if we have an NDF peak this year it will be much later than prior years – late June and July.

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